Bitcoin Reaches 80 Day High, But 200 Day MA May Cause Rejection

by David

-BTC has revived nearly 55% off its low -Price has just kissed the 200 day MA -A long term trend line may cause rejection

Bitcoin has finally broke out of its 2 month range that bears has continuously kept price within. This is a great sign for the overall crypto market as the majority of coins have followed BTC’s lead and have revived strong off their lows. But, before we can say the market is in the complete clear, BTC still has important marks to break hold. Many anticipate new ATH this year but there is also a bunch of others who believe this a dead cat bounce for the markets, setting the stage for a drop to low $20,000s.

BTC held the $30,000 support multiple times as bulls were always there to gobble prices back up. This provided a launchpad for BTC to rise $15,000 in nearly 3 weeks. At the time of writing, BTC is getting rejected at a long term trend line that has held prices down since the ATH was set. BTC must clear over this to technically be in a complete uptrend. Along with this trend lies the 200 Day MA. Price has been stuck under this MA for over 2 months bulls must clear this to be in a safe state. There is also a major resistance of $44,700 that must clear along with the two other marks. 



If BTC fails to clear over these 3 important marks, price will retrace back to minor support of $42,500. This seems like the likely scenario as of now. If this minor support fails to hold BTC , further downside will occur once price breaks below the short term trend line . This will confirm a slight bearish trend is in place BTC will likely go down to retest somewhere within its major support zone of $37,800-$40,200. 



While looking at the Relative Strength Index , we can see that strength peaked into the overbought territory 2 different times the last week. Unfortunately, while BTC just hit near 45k, the strength printed a lower high than its previous push to $42.5k. This is called a bearish divergence and they are highly accurate within the crypto space. The Stochastic RSI did the exact same thing as it printed a lower high than before. Both indicators have a bearish divergence this will likely cause a retrace to occur.



BTC Intraday Analysis

Spot rate: $44,000 Trend: Bullish Volatility: High Support: $42,500 Resistance: $44,700