BTC - A Cup Of Cheer

by David

Just to start - I've essentially been out of the market for at least a week now. I'm trading BTC in the band, but with only 10% of my portfolio. I've purchased some alt's at good buying opportunities, but I've taken profit versus hold them. Although I continue to see the possibility of a final rally beyond the ATH , I'm on the sidelines waiting to analyze this correction. It's challenged the weak hands, BTC .D is dangerously low, and I'm still seeing a lack of large scale BTC adoption.

One of my most favorite patterns is the cup and handle breakout. If formed correctly, it's not only a technical pattern, its a fundamental sentiment indicator. A long drawn out correction that has exhausted sellers, value buyers stepped in and stabilized the price (cup bottom), sentiment returned as price rose bringing in more reluctant speculators ( back side of the cup), and the market thoroughly shakes out the weak hands but doesn't destroy the strong ones (handle). Anticipation builds as price stabilizes in the handle, weak sellers are gone, and volume dries up. This is the recipe for a fresh breakout and then boom - FOMO.

BTC may or may not break out of this cup and handle pattern, but it starts to help me establish risk and reward. The handle is not fully formed, and the breakout has not happened so the target is preliminary, but the structure for the cup and handle is developing very nicely, and risk/reward is shaping up nicely.